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> Economia Bazata Pe Petrol
axel
mesaj 28 Feb 2008, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(ben_gal @ 28 Feb 2008, 02:40 AM) *
Ce este razboiul USA - Irak daca nu un razboi al petrolului.

NU este un razboi al petrolului, in sensul ca s-au dus acolo, cu sondele pregatite pentru extras petrol.
Este mai mult un razboi al anti-petrolului - productia de petrol a scazut in Iraq cu ocazia invaziei.
Este un razboi al $-ului, in buzunarele unor grupuri de interese.


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jet li
mesaj 28 Feb 2008, 01:12 PM
Mesaj #142


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QUOTE(axel @ 28 Feb 2008, 10:41 AM) *
NU este un razboi al petrolului, in sensul ca s-au dus acolo, cu sondele pregatite pentru extras petrol.
Este mai mult un razboi al anti-petrolului - productia de petrol a scazut in Iraq cu ocazia invaziei.
Este un razboi al $-ului, in buzunarele unor grupuri de interese.

Pai nu aveau cum sa faca razboi si sa mentina si productia. Acum productia creste din nou. SUA avea insa nevoie de petrolul acela, trebuia ca Irakul sa il vanda lor si nu altora.

Am zis ca ei fac acum orice pentru a preveni anarhia.
Sunt niste lagare de concentrare construite de FEMA in intreaga USA. Lumea zice ca o sa se declare martial law, si acolo sa fie dusi cei care se impotrivesc, nu prea are sens daca nu o legam de peak oil si ce poate insemna pentru economia lor

http://www.sianews.com/modules.php?name=Ne...le&sid=1062
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=27...716604258&q


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axel
mesaj 29 Feb 2008, 12:40 AM
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N-ai inteles nimic. Follow the money, si-ai sa intelegi cum e cu petrolul si cu Irak-ul...
Iti dau o sugestie: uita-te in rapoarte financiare ale unor anumite companii petroliere smile.gif


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Promo Contextual
mesaj 29 Feb 2008, 12:40 AM
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ContextuALL









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jet li
mesaj 29 Feb 2008, 02:58 PM
Mesaj #144


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Stiu ca toate companiile petroliere din lume profita de pe urma razboiului, care a dus la scaderea productiei in Irak si cresterea pretului. Dar sa nu crezi ca americanii vor lasa Irakul sa vanda cui vor ei


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axel
mesaj 29 Feb 2008, 07:22 PM
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Esti naiv, amice.
Chiar nu conteaza cui vinde Iraq-ul petrol. Pentru ca exista o piata a petrolului. Iraq-ul vinde la chinezi, de exemplu, in felul acesta chinezii nu mai cumpara atat de mult de la sauditi. Astfel ca americanii pot cumpara mai mult de la sauditi.
Mult mai important este cat vinde wink.gif


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jet li
mesaj 10 Mar 2008, 08:13 PM
Mesaj #146


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BBC ne invata cum sa cultivam grau smile.gif
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7284011.stm

QUOTE
Either way, the odds are you're not getting much use out of it. Wouldn't it be great if you could improve your health, help the environment and at the same time do your part to fight inflation?

The world is running dangerously low on wheat, one of civilisation's original staple foods. Drought in Australia and China and a switch to meat in the newly prosperous parts of the world are putting the squeeze on wheat. Prices are at a record high.


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jet li
mesaj 26 Mar 2008, 12:57 PM
Mesaj #147


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http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/01/31/t...g-growth-plans/

Companiile de petrol nu mai investesc in petrol smile.gif Adica nu mai au noi descoperiri in care sa investeasca asa ca isi trimit banii in alte parti
QUOTE
They simply don’t have enough lucrative opportunities to invest,” says Fatih Birol, chief economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency. “They’re investing more to slow down the decline in their existing fields than in new production.”


QUOTE
• The Outlook: Oil companies are expected to report big 2007 profits, but investors will look at other measures.

• The Trend: Most oil companies aren’t replacing reserves and are returning more cash to shareholders, reducing their heft in the oil patch.

• The Price: The companies say they won’t spend money on projects at the expense of profitability.


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jet li
mesaj 16 Apr 2008, 12:51 AM
Mesaj #148


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http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=225762
QUOTE
Russian oil production peaked last year, the vice-president of Lukoil, the country's second largest oil group, said in an interview published Tuesday.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7348463.stm
QUOTE
The future supply of Russian oil is threatened by a likely decline in production levels, one of the country's top oil executives has warned.

Once highly-productive fields in Siberia are slowly being exhausted and the huge cost of searching for oil in the untapped but remote region of eastern Siberia has deterred firms.

"When the well's productivity falls, you have to keep drilling more and more," Mr Fedun said, referring to the steady depletion of older fields.

"You have seen it in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and now you are seeing it in Siberia.


Peak Oil in Rusia, al doilea mare producator. Nu mai e mult pana cand nu vor mai exporta nimic, il vor pastra pentru ei, nu vor revolte si anarhie la ei in tara pentru ca il vand altora.
150$ barilul in curand. Deja e 114 si cu toata vorbaria despre "economic slowdown in US" nu vrea sa scada.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
QUOTE
The rapid decline of the UK from peak exports to net oil importer in just six years is sometimes referenced as an example of the Export Land Model in real-world action. Mexico's domestic consumption and net exports appear to be closely corresponding with the expectations of the Export Land Model also.

Am zis ca pana la sfarsitul anului peak oil o sa fie la toate televiziunile nu o sa il mai poata ignora. Poate o sa incerce sa ne minta, sa spuna ca e o chestie temporara smile.gif Fara petrolul si gazele rusilor Europa se opreste. Inca asteptam tehnologiile viitorului care sa ne permita sa continuam "cresterea economica si prosperitatea spre inaltele culmi ale capitalismului" forever


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Blakut
mesaj 20 Apr 2008, 12:17 PM
Mesaj #149


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Sa nu uitam ca mai sunt locuri de unde se poate extrage petrol in Antarctica.


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jet li
mesaj 20 Apr 2008, 10:55 PM
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Nu nu mai sunt ! Nu mai e nimic ! Nici urma ! smile.gif
O sa se termine petrolul si murim toti, revenim la epoca de piatra si alte asemenea ! smile.gif

Afla ce e cu EROEI. Da lumea cum e acum e "fun". Pentru unii, pentru altii nu, dar cam intotdeauna a fost asa. Eu spun ca suntem "pe val" anume pe varful ultimului strop al valului, chiar inainte de o lua in jos smile.gif In jos in privinta comportamentului oamenilor mai ales, nimic altceva nu conteaza (nu ar conta) daca toti oamenii ar fi asemanatori unor maestri Zen


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Blakut
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 07:28 AM
Mesaj #151


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QUOTE
The most valuable resources of Antarctica lie offshore, namely the oil and natural gas fields found in the Ross Sea in 1973. Exploitation of all mineral resources is banned until 2048 by the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.


Si lumea inca nu a cautat cum trebuie. Stais a vezi cand o sa caute cate gasesc.


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axel
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 10:38 AM
Mesaj #152


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QUOTE(jet li @ 20 Apr 2008, 11:55 PM) *
O sa se termine petrolul si murim toti, revenim la epoca de piatra si alte asemenea ! smile.gif

Pai nu spuneai tu mai devreme ca cubanezii traiesc bine-mersi fara petrol? jamie.gif


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Blakut
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE
Pai nu spuneai tu mai devreme ca cubanezii traiesc bine-mersi fara petrol

Eh, cubanezi, epoca de piatra. Detalii...


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jet li
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 08:25 PM
Mesaj #154


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Noi nu ne comportam precum cubanezii , si nu avem clima lor
De cautat va zic eu ca au cautat peste tot. De 20 de ani nu se mai descopera nimic mare.

Ati aflat ce e cu EROEI ? Energy Returned on Energy Invested. Adica se poate intampla sa te coste mai mult energia pt a scoate petrolul decat petrolul , de fapt nu prea are cum, pt ca scumpesti petrolul. Asta o sa se intample curand, tot petrolul la care se ajugne usor s-a terminat, si o sa inceapa sa se duca dupa ala greu de atins, si cu un pret normal pentru cat de greu l-au obtinut


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Blakut
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 09:01 PM
Mesaj #155


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Si atunci o sa avem masini nucleare, si avioane nucleare, si vapoare nucleare, si calculatoare de buzunar nucleare...


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axel
mesaj 21 Apr 2008, 09:44 PM
Mesaj #156


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laugh.gif
Te crezi in anii 50? biggrin.gif


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Blakut
mesaj 22 Apr 2008, 08:19 AM
Mesaj #157


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_nucleon



Daca in anii 50 aveau tupeu sa se gandeasca la asa ceva, acum de ce nu ar avea?


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axel
mesaj 22 Apr 2008, 08:51 AM
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Tupeu aveau. Minte nu prea aveau...


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jet li
mesaj 21 May 2008, 05:53 PM
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Oil hits record above $132 on weak supply
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/21/markets/oil_eia/index.htm

Cred ca nu mai e petrol "light" indeajuns, asta face pretul sa urce cu 2$ pe zi. Nu toate rafinariile se descurca cu petrolul "heavy" care a mai ramas, cat de curand se poate sa vedem cozi la benzina din cauza asta smile.gif

QUOTE
U.S. light crude for July delivery reached as high as $132.08 a barrel, and was up $2.75 to $131.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:04 a.m. ET. Prior to the 10:30 a.m. ET, oil was down 29 cents to $128.69.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...amp;refer=india
QUOTE
The market is really looking for light sweet crude and there isn't really a huge demand for what Saudi Arabia has to offer,'' said Gerard Burg, an energy and minerals economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. ``Oil is primarily used as a transport fuel these days and the heavier grades that yield less transport fuels are less desired.''


Petrolul arabilor nu mai are cautare, e de tipul "heavy crude". Iranul la fel are rezervoarele pline si pune petrol si in navele din port sa il pastreze, dar nu e cumparat. Tot pentru ca e "heavy", cu continut mare de sulf


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axel
mesaj 21 May 2008, 06:03 PM
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Cica:
"Prices have risen spectacularly because of speculation, because of the devaluation of the dollar and world inflation," the minister, Rafael Ramirez, said late Tuesday after a meeting with OPEC secretary general Abdullah el-Badri.
Deloc ce sugerezi tu.


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jet li
mesaj 21 May 2008, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(axel @ 21 May 2008, 08:03 PM) *
Cica:
"Prices have risen spectacularly because of speculation, because of the devaluation of the dollar and world inflation," the minister, Rafael Ramirez, said late Tuesday after a meeting with OPEC secretary general Abdullah el-Badri.
Deloc ce sugerezi tu.

Nu eu cine a scris articolul. Sa vedem ce zici cand ajunge la 200$, tot speculatorii sunt de vina ? Si probabil bietii de ei o sa piarda o gramada cand incep arabii sa pompeze voiniceste atata petrol incat ajunge pretul la 100$ si ei l-au cumparat cu 200.
Arabii scot 50% apa din puturile lor pentru ca sunt batrane si pompeaza apa de mare sa se ridice petrolul. In afara de asta petrolul nu e "standard" dupa cum zice articolul, la fel cum sunt si mai multe tipuri de carbuni, lumea cauta "light crude", care nu mai e indeajuns
Istorie : 20$ in 2000, 80$ in 2007 la sfarsit. De atunci pot zice ca am accelerat
Dar "whatever makes you sleep at night" smile.gif

Acest topic a fost editat de jet li: 21 May 2008, 06:35 PM


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axel
mesaj 21 May 2008, 07:01 PM
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AFP a scris articolul, dar nu asta e relevant. E relevant pe cine a citat. Uite cine e individul: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rafael_Ram%C3...%28Venezuela%29

Uite ce a mai zis baiatul (din prea-iubita Venezuela a lui Chavez):
Ramirez said "any rise in production would be immediately put in stock and this would have a negative impact on prices."

As the price of a barrel of crude headed for 130 dollars, Ramirez insisted the problem was "not linked to supply and demand". "There is enough oil on the market," Ramirez declared.

The minister said that the "financial actors" are now more interested in futures contracts "which they consider safer than other investments."

Asa ca fii mai rezervat cand cauti vine legate de pretul petrolului. Momentan o mare parte din vina este faptul ca pretul petrolului este un self-fulfilling profecy.


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jet li
mesaj 30 May 2008, 09:44 AM
Mesaj #163


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http://www.ski-epic.com/amsterdam_bicycles/



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axel
mesaj 2 Jun 2008, 01:59 PM
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Articol legat de speculatia din tranzactionarea de oil futures:

Hedge Funds Cut Oil Bets as Prices Rose, CFTC Probed
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home


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mesaj 7 Jun 2008, 11:15 AM
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Film despre peak oil pe CNN :
http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/news/20...alists.cnnmoney


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axel
mesaj 10 Jun 2008, 10:51 PM
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‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’


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jet li
mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 10:52 AM
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Why oil won't hit $100
QUOTE
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite oil's record high last week, forget about crude going to $100 a barrel.

Prices have already dropped about 7 percent since last week, and are likely to fall even more in the coming years.

That's the consensus of analysts, who say rising production, the advent of biofuels, and conservation measures will likely lead to lower oil prices by 2015.

But how much lower is subject to wide interpretations, and estimates rage from $20 to $60 a barrel.
The next energy crisis

"If this market can continue going lower without OPEC disrupting it, it's very possible that by 2010 we could be substantially lower than anyone is imagining," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at the consultancy Cameron Hanover. "Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel."

Beutel bases his prediction on the fact that oil is historically a cyclical commodity. In the early 1980s it hit $38 a barrel, far higher than today's price when adjusted for inflation, only to fall to $10 a barrel by the late 1990s.

He also said high energy prices are hurting the American consumer, especially the young, the elderly and the poor.

"This has decimated their lifestyle," he said. "I'm convinced it will give us a recession."

But Beutel is in the minority, and most analysts don't ever expect crude prices to trade anywhere near $20 a barrel ever again - which is good news for renewable energy technologies, most of which need crude prices near the $50 mark to remain competitive.

The government-run Energy Information Administration has a $50 target price for crude by 2015.

EIA says by 2010 the amount of oil OPEC can pump should increase by 2 million barrels per day, largely driven by Saudi Arabia. The EIA, like most analysts, does not agree with the view that production has peaked or will soon peak in Saudi Arabia, although a small but growing number of experts say it might.

EIA says more oil from Central Asia and the Gulf of Mexico should offset production declines in the North Sea and and Mexico.

And co-called "non-traditional" fuels, such as oil sands from Canada and corn-based ethanol, are expected to double, going from the current 3 million barrels a day to 6 million barrels a day by 2010.

While demand is expected to continue growing, EIA says conservation measures should slow the rate of growth to 1.3 percent a year from 2 percent.

All this means the world's spare production capacity - the difference between what is consumed and what is produced - should grow, relieving some of the fears that have pushed prices so high as of late, such as a disruption in supply from a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or a war with Iran.

"You're not going to get to $100, but you're not going to see $20 either," said Glen Sweetnam, director of EIA's international economic and green house gas division.


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axel
mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 01:02 PM
Mesaj #168


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Inteleg ca-mi dai dreptate cand afirm ca petrolul e atat de scump din cauza factorului speculativ smile.gif


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jet li
mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 01:54 PM
Mesaj #169


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Nu, tocmai vreau sa arat ca tot timpul analistii spun ca va scadea pretul, uite aici un grafic, acum s-au saturat sa greseasca si spun ca va urca smile.gif



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axel
mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 05:49 PM
Mesaj #170


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Conform graficului tau si a ipotezei tale ca analistii gresesc intotdeauna, pretul petrolului va scadea vertiginos, pentru ca analistii tocmai au prezis cresterea la 200-250$/barilul biggrin.gif

Eu zic sa meditezi la ce ti-am citat despre speculatia din domeniul petrolier. Uite, iti dau si niste hint-uri, poate reusesti sa intelegi:
- elasticitate de pret (petrolul are pret foarte inelastic)
- piata de derivative nereglementata
- self-fullfilling profecies
- momentum trading
- price bubbles
- oligopol


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exergy33
mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 06:11 PM
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QUOTE(jet li @ 21 May 2008, 08:32 PM) *
Si probabil bietii de ei o sa piarda o gramada cand incep arabii sa pompeze voiniceste atata petrol incat ajunge pretul la 100$ si ei l-au cumparat cu 200.
Arabii scot 50% apa din puturile lor pentru ca sunt batrane si pompeaza apa de mare sa se ridice petrolul.


Va inchipuiti ca cei ce au interese nu platesc un fel de mita indirecta unor guverne din tari producatoare de petrol tocmai pentru a nu pompa mai mult decit trebuie, sau mai bine zis ... nu mai mult decit au ei nevoie pentru a duce preturile la nivelul pe care il vor? rolleyes.gif


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mesaj 16 Jun 2008, 09:18 PM
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Rezervele de petrol sunt subestimate? - un articol interesant, din care reiese că şi modul de calcul (statistic) al rezervelor poate induce erori care influenţează direct preţul barilului.


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axel
mesaj 17 Jun 2008, 10:23 AM
Mesaj #173


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Jet Li, cum presupun ca inca mai ai indoieli ca exista un mare factor speculativ in pretul petrolului, iti mai dau un articol de citit:

Prices near $140 on weak dollar, then fall sharply as investors collect profits from a $5 one-day run up.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/16/markets/oi...sion=2008061616

Si, daca ai stii vreun pic de economie (ma indoiesc ca stii, pentru ca daca ai stii n-ai mai preaslavi comunismul), ai stii ce-s alea nivel de rezistenta si nivel de suport. Si daca ai stii, de ce nu te-ai intreba de ce exista nivel de rezistenta fix la numerele astea rotunde (cum ar fi 140)?


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jet li
mesaj 17 Jun 2008, 11:31 PM
Mesaj #174


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Daca ziceti ca e speculatie , atunci cat ar trebui sa coste ? Si sunt curios ce o sa ziceti cand benzina se face 10 lei litru si iese lumea in strada, si afurisitii de speculanti tot nu lasa din pret. Apoi economic collapse, toate se scumpesc, etc si pretul nu scade.

Companiile private de petrol oricum detin doar o mica parte din productia mondiala, vreo 5%, restul e controlat de diverse state.
Omoram toti banditii care tin pretul ridicat, SUA invadeaza toate tarile care produc petrol, sa "elibereze" lumea de speculanti. Si pretul tot nu o sa scada, pentru ca nu mai e petrol.

Trebuie sa pun iar un grafic, il ignorati pentru ca asa vreti.
"Don't hate your enemy it clouds your judgement"


Credeti ca o scadere de 3% pe an e putin ? Sau mult ? Doar faptul ca productia nu creste e un lucru rau pentru economia noastra bazata pe crestere continua.
Adaugati la astea "Export Land Model" , o sa vina o vreme acand producatorii isi vor pastra productia pentru ei, si mult mai repede decat pare logic sa se intample :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
QUOTE
Real-world application

The rapid decline of the UK from peak exports to net oil importer in just six years is sometimes referenced as an example of the Export Land Model in real-world action. Mexico's domestic consumption and net exports appear to be closely corresponding with the expectations of the Export Land Model also.


Acest topic a fost editat de jet li: 17 Jun 2008, 11:37 PM


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axel
mesaj 17 Jun 2008, 11:37 PM
Mesaj #175


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Nu da vina pe mine ca tu nu intelegi economie.


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