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> Următorul M7
shapeshifter
mesaj 28 Jun 2009, 06:19 PM
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Image of Next Earthquake:

Epicenter: 45.6+-0.1 N, 26.6 +-0.1 E
Epicentral Area: 50km in NE-SW Direction and 20 km width
Rupture: Uni-Lateral Toward SW
Depth Range: 140 –160 km
Magnitude: M=7.3+-0.4
Time: 2007+-6

„A long-term earthquake prediction, based on the regularity of earthquake occurrences and a seismic gap theory, is presented. Especially in subduction zones, clear geophysical background (plate tectonics) and short recurrence time allow us to make practical use of the prediction. An M7 intermediate-depth earthquake occurs in the Vrancea region of Romania on average every 20 to 30 years. The last major earthquake occurred in 1986 (M7.2). According to the average rate frequency, we expect a next large earthquake will occur soon. Although a long-term prediction based on regularity of earthquake occurrences has already been carried out by Purcaru (1974) and Enescu et al. (1974), and the predicted M7 earthquake actually occurred in 1977, this prediction was not based on the seismic gap theory and the hypocenter could not have been precisely predicted. Here we show (i) that we can relocate earthquakes since 1934 quite accurately by using the modified joint hypocenter determination method developed by Hurukawa & Imoto (1992), and (ii) that past M7 class earthquakes had occurred at a depth range of 60-140 km with no overlapping of the aftershock areas, and the area at 140-160 km depth remains unbroken. Considering three seismic active time bands in each century characterized by “quasicycles“ of about 100 year identified by Purcaru (1979), and the relocation results, we propose a hypothetical scheme for the occurrence of the M7 Vrancea earthquakes, as follows: a first M7 earthquake occurs in the deeper segment (140-160 km in depth) at the beginning of each century (years 0-10), then a second M7 earthquake occurs in the midst segment (110-140 km in depth) at the midst of each century (years 30- 40), and finally a third M7 earthquake occurs in the shallower segment (80-110 km in depth) at the end of each century (years 70-90). Certainly, the focal depth of old earthquakes is not accurate, since it is estimated from seismic intensity distribution.However, historical M7 earthquakes show a clear dependence of focal depth on the particular active time interval in each century.
Purcaru (1974, 1979), Enescu et al. (1974) and Enescu & Enescu (1996, 1999) predicted from the regularity of earthquake occurrence that the next major Vrancea earthquake will occur in this decade. Considering the result of this study and the periodicity of the seismic activity over the past 1000 years, we believe that the possibility of the next M7 earthquake occurring at a depth of 140-160 km by 2010 is very high.” (N. Hurukawa, M. Popa, M. Radulian)

Acest topic a fost editat de shapeshifter: 28 Jun 2009, 06:27 PM


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shapeshifter   Următorul M7   28 Jun 2009, 06:19 PM
Cla   Ieri or zis ca o sa avem o inundatie maaaare, si c...   28 Jun 2009, 07:11 PM
shapeshifter   Cutremur puternic in estul Mediteranei, in zona in...   1 Jul 2009, 08:26 PM
Rovaniemi   QUOTE(shapeshifter @ 28 Jun 2009, 07:19 P...   2 Jul 2009, 04:06 PM
shapeshifter   cel din 86 a avut 6.9 grosso modo vorbind îns...   2 Jul 2009, 09:01 PM
shapeshifter   Pregatirea familiei in caz de cutremur; ce trebuie...   2 Jul 2009, 09:21 PM
shapeshifter   Alte sfaturi (culese) pt. cei care stau la bloc 1...   2 Jul 2009, 09:23 PM
shapeshifter   uitaţi-vă cum arată şi ce poat...   2 Jul 2009, 09:42 PM
shapeshifter   Hartă cu zonarea teritoriului României:   2 Jul 2009, 09:49 PM
shapeshifter   Cutremurul si efectul negativ al zvonurilor propag...   3 Jul 2009, 01:46 PM
andra_v   Pai numai sa te apuce cutremurul prin Centrul Capi...   3 Jul 2009, 05:07 PM
shapeshifter   Cum se manifesta un cutremur din Vrancea ? Cred ca...   6 Jul 2009, 04:01 PM
shapeshifter   alertă de cutremur zilele astea, foarte posib...   28 Jul 2009, 04:33 PM
Blakut   Riight...tre sa sapam o groapa ca sa eliberam tens...   28 Jul 2009, 05:47 PM
shapeshifter   2009-07-24 20:27:10 Latitudine 45.722 N Longitudin...   28 Jul 2009, 05:50 PM
marduk   Mei, nepotul lui Marmureanu, cand zici zilele aste...   28 Jul 2009, 09:02 PM
shapeshifter   vreo 2-3-4 zile...   28 Jul 2009, 09:37 PM
Blakut   Deci daca pana luni-marti nimic...ai dat-o in bara...   29 Jul 2009, 01:17 PM
shapeshifter   >>+<<   30 Jul 2009, 06:14 PM
shapeshifter   cutremur în zona Făgăraş, în curând...   8 Aug 2009, 08:58 PM
turbo trabant   pai ce se intampla? ati dat unul mic la mare dati ...   10 Aug 2009, 01:44 PM
shapeshifter   nu, ci ceva peste 6 cu mai multe replici peste 5   10 Aug 2009, 01:49 PM
turbo trabant   cate de 5? sa prezic si eu, ca tot se da ceva ...   10 Aug 2009, 01:56 PM
shapeshifter   1521 (data exacta necunoscuta): M ~ 6,0 Imax ~ VII...   10 Aug 2009, 02:00 PM
turbo trabant   Si? mai ne trebuie si la munte un 6 -6 sa avem ava...   10 Aug 2009, 02:20 PM
shapeshifter   Nu exista informatii suficient de clare privind ce...   10 Aug 2009, 02:23 PM
shapeshifter   dar ce te faci dacă crapă vidraru? deci...   10 Aug 2009, 02:25 PM
turbo trabant   QUOTE(shapeshifter @ 10 Aug 2009, 02:25 P...   10 Aug 2009, 02:29 PM
shapeshifter   QUOTE(turbo trabant @ 10 Aug 2009, 03:29 ...   10 Aug 2009, 02:31 PM
turbo trabant   QUOTE(shapeshifter @ 10 Aug 2009, 02:31 P...   10 Aug 2009, 02:40 PM
shapeshifter   QUOTE(turbo trabant @ 10 Aug 2009, 03:40 ...   10 Aug 2009, 02:45 PM
turbo trabant   QUOTE(shapeshifter @ 10 Aug 2009, 02:45 P...   10 Aug 2009, 02:47 PM
shapeshifter   QUOTE(turbo trabant @ 10 Aug 2009, 03:47 ...   10 Aug 2009, 02:49 PM
Rovaniemi   QUOTE(shapeshifter @ 10 Aug 2009, 03:49 P...   11 Aug 2009, 07:01 PM
shapeshifter   Seismologii avertizează: Cutremurul de la Mar...   11 Aug 2009, 11:00 AM
shapeshifter   QUOTE(Rovaniemi @ 11 Aug 2009, 08:01 PM) ...   11 Aug 2009, 08:29 PM


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